In the early 1900's the political and economic face of the Western world was radically changing. Populations were exploding and industrialization was providing technology never before possible, but the old political scheme of monarchy was still wide-spread. The old political scheme failed and WWI was the fire to the gasoline that ignited changes to the core of what we know as society today.
Now, 100 years later, we see again radically changing world events. Populations are even larger, industry is massive, technology and communications have created a "Globalized" world. Again we find ourselves in the perilous position where our style of governing is ill-suited to our environment. Resources are strained. Economics are being widely exploited by organizations that transcend national governments. Critical events on the other side of the globe have massive impact on those on the other side.
We're standing in a lake of gasoline. We better take a look at who's holding matches.
The unwritten Social Contract can not be ignored. As the unrest around the world has graphically demonstrated, governments that fail to provide for the people fail spectacularly. Today one could argue that often business conglomerates now function more as a government than traditional borders have in the past. But with this change comes the new responsibility of those conglomerates to assume the burden of the Social Contract. Wealth remains the primary power in human governing. Those with the wealth must take a great interest in millions of people that support their vast fortunes. Even if populations do not overtly revolt, a broken Social Contract results in broken workers without any more wealth to give.
These are interesting times.
In the pre-WWI era, war was a viable means of political control. Battles were limited to soldiers and the posturing was mostly a matter of pride among nobles. "My army is better than yours." But the huge population growth of the industrial age allowed for vast (in the time) military forces. The weaponry they could use was a quantum leap in effectiveness compared to single-shot rifles and swords. The monarchy system gravitated to armed conflicts, but when this finally occurred, the result was a war no one in the day could have imagined. WWI changed forever how wars would be fought and virtually erased monarchy from the political scheme.
Today the weapons of mass destruction we face are not the deadly sort. Our issue in 2011 isn't a nuclear war; we're all pretty aware of how that would turn out. Our threat today is global finance. How we earn a living today depends on workers in China who depend on cheap resources in the 3rd world and oil producing nations. Those resources and workers are not (directly) controlled by the governments of those nations, but rather by the "private" industries that employ them. These industries are bound to the financial sector and ultimately to the investment firms which now control our world economy.
Using the WWI analogy today applied to the financial crisis you could say WWIII has started. It isn't being fought with nuclear weapons, it is being fought in Stock Exchange markets around the world. The results could well alter the face of the political world as greatly as WWI.
What brings me to these thoughts today? Well WWI started with a fairly insignificant event--the assassination of Archiduke Ferdinand of Austria. No one could have predicted the next 4 years. This week we have seen a potentially mortal blow to the Japanese economy. This earthquake is already sending financial shockwaves in to the depressed global markets.
Maybe this event is not the assassination that starts the domino effect of a financial WWIII. But is such an event only waiting to occur? Soon our stretched economies will reach a point where there is nothing left to give and support will end. National governments will attempt to reign in private resources to remain functional... But will the private sector allow them? What is to prevent a global corporation from simply stating, "Sorry, we have the resources and we'll continue to profit as we please."
What form will the conflict take? I can't say. It isn't too hard to imagine a worker's revolt. That would follow the pattern of French Revolution. But I think such a revolt would suffer from having no clear enemy to revolt against. There is no monarchy to depose. The rules of the Social Contract apply to the workers as much as it does to the ruling class. Worker needs have to be met. But we can't exist without the wealthy to fund our lives. So workers could not just pull down the structure of the financial world. Well... they could, but what would replace it? Communism or Socialism? These are possible and that would change the political scheme of the Western world. Communism doesn't have a great history of being able to fulfill the Social Contract. So if it did occur, it would have to be a Communism we have never seen on the global scale. It would be comical if Marx turned out to be right.
I don't think Communism will win out. I don't think we'll see an armed workers revolt and therefore we won't see a radical dismantling of "Wall Street". No... what will survive will have assume that Wall Street survives, but now Wall Street needs to expand its powers to the lives of the workers. One can not exist without the other and even the most miserly of Scrooges will see the cost of doing business in the equation. Strange to think that perhaps William Gibson (author of Neuromancer) may have guessed more accurately than Marx.
Regardless of the options. The nut of the issue remains. Changes are necessary. We are not islands of sovereign nations. We are sovereign nations 100% dependent on the barons of our financial system who now operate without borders. They control our resources, our printed money, and our governments. They may not have precision control yet, but it is only a matter of time. They may not even be aware yet of their new potential role. They probably imagine they are still just doing what wealthy people do--make money. Sure they fundamentally grasp they have power and wealth, but it could be that the time is coming where they must acknowledge they have now acquired the third component to the ruling class in the Social Contract... power, wealth, and responsibility.
I welcome our new alien overlords.
